{"id":1322,"date":"2020-04-27T14:29:35","date_gmt":"2020-04-27T18:29:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/?p=1322"},"modified":"2020-06-17T21:25:09","modified_gmt":"2020-06-17T21:25:09","slug":"chart-of-the-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=1322","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the Day"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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By Cunningham
In the late 1980\u2019s, as the real estate market in the Southwestern part of the United States
collapsed, I was wiped out, as were many of my friends and business associates. We were
experiencing the inevitable catastrophic aftermath of one of the greatest real estate booms in
the history of mankind.
We had made scores of millions in the preceding six to seven years and subsequently had
successfully lost every last penny we had\u2014and then some. We truly had unmanageable debt
loads. Twenty-four months previously, our property was worth two to three times the debt. In
1989 it was worth 20% of the debt, and the amount of debt had not gone up. The property
value had been whacked by 80-90%. (Imagine more than 3,500 banks disappearing in a fouryear time period, commercial real estate that could be bought for 20% of replacement costs,
and rents for Class-A office buildings being less than the taxes\/insurance and common area
maintenance fees. This was our reality.)
We had no cash or cash flow, and we
all had personal liability that far
exceeded the market value of our
assets. We were stone-cold broke,
with no possibility of recovery. The
hole was too deep.
Of even greater significance was the
hit our egos had taken. Our identity
was wrapped up in our financial
success: When the success vaporized,
so did our sense of who we were and
what our place was. We were broke and broken.
We needed to heal, recover, and rebuild\u2014but do it differently next time. We wanted to be
certain that we NEVER had to experience this kind of disaster again. The thinking was not that
we could somehow control the economy or interest rates. We couldn\u2019t. But what we could
control was the thinking, disciplines, and strategies that allowed us to get caught in the tsunami
in the first place.
We knew that if we didn\u2019t learn the lessons, we would be doomed to repeat them\u2026an
unacceptable possibility given the pain we were in.
We decided to pool our collective lessons learned (or been reminded of). We needed to make
sure we accumulated twenty years of experience and not one year\u2019s worth of experience
twenty times.
As you read the lessons collected almost three decades ago, you might be tempted to say this
doesn\u2019t apply to you because you\u2019re not in the real estate business or because you\u2019re not doing
big deals. I can assure you the lessons are applicable regardless of the industry or the size of
your business.
Here it is on a bumper sticker: The best time to learn the lessons (and avoid the dreaded dumb
tax) is prior to making the mistake in the first place.
Interestingly, most of us avoided repeating these mistakes in the ensuing twenty-eight years.
Not because we were smart, but because the pain of the lessons was severe enough that we
disciplined ourselves to avoid allowing our emotions to make what should have been
intellectual decisions. We established a set of rules and disciplines and followed them
maniacally.
Here it is on a bumper sticker: Making mistakes is inevitable; admitting them and learning the
lesson is optional. I love what Dr. Buckminster Fuller said about this: \u201cA mistake is not a sin
unless it is not admitted.\u201d
Herewith are some of my favorite lessons collected during the week of February 20, 1989.
Strategy
\u2022 A lack of rules, skepticism, and discipline caused every mistake we made.
\u2022 Emotions, when mixed with unbridled greed and easy access to capital, produce
economic disasters.
\u2022 Financial engineering and incremental debt do not turn a bad deal into a good one.
\u2022 Raw land eats three meals per day.
\u2022 Catching a big wave is not the same as being a good swimmer.
\u2022 There is no way to correct without divorcing the story and marrying the truth. Facts
do not cease to exist just because you ignore them.
\u2022 A good market tends to hide mistakes. Nothing takes the place of being actively
engaged in the running of your business and being thoughtful (as well as skeptical)
about the future.
\u2022 Last week\u2019s marketing report has absolutely nothing to do with where the market is
headed, what the economy is doing, or what the demand will be next year.
\u2022 How you run your business during the good times is the only true predictor of how
well your business will cope with the bad times.
\u2022 You must keep a conservative strategy during the good times because you generally
don\u2019t know you\u2019re in bad times until it\u2019s too late.
\u2022 No team has ever won the game with an \u201coffense only\u201d strategy. Great teams, the
ones who win championship rings, all have fantastic defenses. They think about
prevention, protection, and risks.
\u2022 Not all progress is measured by ground gained; sometimes progress is measured by
losses avoided.
\u2022 Speed kills. True wealth is built slowly. Speed and greed necessitate aggressive
leverage and increase the odds of catastrophe. It is better to go slower and avoid the
do-overs.
\u2022 Our desire for growth and size was based on ego and greed, not strategy and wealth.
\u2022 The successful people we admire are not the ones who made it. We admire the ones
who kept it.
\u2022 Owners MUST be hands-on and involved in every aspect of the business.
\u2022 We acted like it was a sin to miss a revenue opportunity. That makes as much sense
as needing to eat everything at a Sunday buffet.
\u2022 Do not be afraid to say \u201cno\u201d. Saying \u201cyes\u201d does not always equal more.
\u2022 It\u2019s delusional to believe our ability, intellect, and work ethic can overcome a bad
market.
\u2022 Litigation is expensive, time-consuming, and to be avoided.
\u2022 The best way to avoid losses and to stay financially healthy is to \u201csell too soon.\u201d The
old real estate maxim \u201cIn the history of the world, the seller is always wrong\u201d is
outrageously stupid when you run out of cash!
\u2022 Don\u2019t fall into the trap of believing you can sell it for a higher price tomorrow. The
future is unknown (and unknowable) and fraught with risk.
\u2022 In the future, I would rather miss an opportunity than lose capital.
\u2022 Never buy something because you think you might need it someday.
\u2022 Keep working all your alternatives until something closes. It hasn\u2019t closed until the
money is in the bank.
\u2022 Success does not make you invincible or bulletproof. What success does best is make
you complacent and egotistical, which by themselves are sufficient to create
disaster.
\u2022 The euphoria of a hot market usually results in ignoring marketplace fundamentals.
Prudently gathering and evaluating market-based economic information is the only
prescription for avoiding the mistake of smoking your own exhaust.
\u2022 Never delay taking corrective action once the problem has been recognized. Hoping
for better conditions in the future so the problem will solve itself is a fool\u2019s game.
Procrastination magnifies problems.
\u2022 Failure to recognize reality is delusional. You might be smarter and better than your
competition, but when the market shifts, you\u2019re still broke. Don\u2019t confuse intellect
with economic reality.
\u2022 Never rely on only your consultant\u2019s recommendations. If you don\u2019t understand it,
don\u2019t do it.
\u2022 We did not narrow our focus when we knew times were getting worse. This was due
to two things: (1) The distraction of our prior track record, and (2) An unwillingness
to access the risk of being wrong.
\u2022 A small percentage of a large number is a large number.
\u2022 Any fool can make money in the good times.
\u2022 The question should never be, \u201cShould I pursue this opportunity?\u201d
The right questions are:
o If I pursue this opportunity, how much time, resources, effort, and
investment are required?
o Is this in my wheelhouse (core competence)?
o What could go wrong?
o What are the returns if I am right and the costs if I am wrong?
o Can I live with being wrong?
\u2022 The greater the past success, the greater the likelihood of the Superman fantasy. A
lack of cash or cash flow is Kryptonite and it kills all superheroes. Always be skeptical
and keep some powder dry.
Deals
\u2022 Doing a deal to keep the staff busy is stupid. Do not do marginal deals.
\u2022 A bad economy doesn\u2019t create financial problems; it just reveals them.
\u2022 Almost everything takes longer than you think it will and costs more than originally
budgeted. Plan for delays and bumps.
\u2022 Just because prices have gone up the last several years doesn\u2019t mean they can\u2019t go
down 30% next year.
\u2022 The easiest sale is to an employee or a consultant.
\u2022 When the market is bad, there are NO buyers\u2026at any price.
\u2022 Delaying the decision to sell today because last year\u2019s prices were higher or because the
anticipated profits originally projected were greater is stupid. The market doesn\u2019t care
about either.
\u2022 Do not follow the market down. Make deep cuts quickly.
\u2022 Don\u2019t let what your competition is doing influence your decisions. You can\u2019t erect a
fence to keep the competition out. Besides, they do stupid things sometimes too.
\u2022 Secondary locations always decline faster (and most) and take the longest to return.
\u2022 New projects must be based on current demand and not future growth.
\u2022 You do not have to swing at every pitch that is thrown. Do fewer, better deals. Not only
will you optimize the results of the superior deals, you will also have far less overhead.
\u2022 Too many deals consume time and draw attention away from the really good ones.
\u2022 It takes three good deals to make up for one bad deal.
\u2022 When a bad deal surfaces, 90% of management\u2019s time is siphoned off from the rest of
the business to deal with the problems it generates. The result: The bad one is still bad
and the good ones are now mediocre or troubled as a result of a lack of attention.
Ninety percent of management\u2019s time should be spent of nurturing the good ones. Easy
to say, hard to do.
\u2022 Holding off on adjusting the price or overhead based on the belief the market will
rebound quickly is irrational.
Financing
\u2022 Debt gives the illusion of wealth. True wealth is assets, cash flow, and manageable
(minimal) debt.
\u2022 Excessive debt and hope are the root of all financial crises. You can never ignore
risks or suspend doubt.
\u2022 Doing a marginal deal just because the money is available is stupid. Bankers typically
can\u2019t assess the market risks either.
\u2022 Take your personal guarantee seriously. You only bring two things to the table: cash
and your guarantee, neither of which has an unlimited supply.
\u2022 Don\u2019t rely on future price increases to make a deal work.
\u2022 Never finance long-term assets with short-term debt.
\u2022 We covered a lot of mistakes with access to an abundance of money and easy credit.
\u2022 Too much money makes you stupid. Just because you can doesn\u2019t mean you should.
\u2022 Stretching to do a deal by horsing the numbers in a spreadsheet is usually a sign of
ego and rarely a good idea.
Personnel
\u2022 Bench strength is critical. Find the best people and compensate them VERY well. It
saves money in the long run.
\u2022 The tougher the times, the better the people you need. There is no way to survive a
bad market with weak people.
\u2022 Adding\/keeping mediocre people weakens the organization, which dilutes your
results.
\u2022 Always be upgrading your talent and never be afraid to pay them what they need to
make.
\u2022 Every hire we make should raise the average.
\u2022 One superstar 7-footer is far more valuable than ten 5-footers. Weak people beget
weak results.
\u2022 Never wait to address personnel issues or substandard performance. Employees are
either doing a great job or they aren\u2019t. If they aren\u2019t, take action. My job isn\u2019t to
babysit or beg people to do their jobs.
\u2022 The cost of tolerating an incapable or misplaced employee is far greater than the
discomfort of having a tough conversation and speedy termination.
\u2022 A culture rooted in past successes, growth at all costs, and aggressive bonus
structures will produce employees who don\u2019t think, who aren\u2019t skeptical, and who
ignore risks.
Overhead
\u2022 Stay lean even if you can afford to get fat. Keep overhead low!
\u2022 Watch your cash VERY closely. Ask yourself, \u201cDo I really need this? Will this help me
make more money?\u201d Once the money is spent, it\u2019s gone forever.
\u2022 Get really sober (medieval) on what needs to happen to your cost structure to
produce the profits you want vs. the revenue you hope to get.
\u2022 Each line item of your financials should be scrutinized on a continuous basis to make
sure the money is being spent in a productive and prudent way.
\u2022 Conserve cash, especially during the good times. Spending money to look like a big
deal is not the same as being a big deal.
\u2022 When you\u2019re out of cash, you\u2019re out of business. Cash is truly KING.
\u2022 When the market shifts, you can\u2019t cut overhead fast enough.
\u2022 It is easy to overpay or beef up when the world is viewed from only an upside
perspective.
\u2022 Cut overhead early and hard. Pride and hubris kept us from cutting our overhead in
a timely manner.
\u2022 Fancy offices, hot cars, lots of staff, and high overhead are signs of significance, not
success.
\u2022 Knowing your numbers\u2014what it costs to run each aspect of your business\u2014and
having timely information are critical to success.
\u2022 Focus on the costs of doing business and not just the revenue potential.
\u2022 Paying for overhead we don\u2019t need to support revenue we don\u2019t have is stupid.
\u2022 Contract out as much of the work as possible. Keep overhead low and variable.
Thinking Time
\u2022 As I look back at my most significant losses, stupidest decisions, and biggest mistakes,
what are the fifty most important lessons I have learned?
\u2022 Where am I making some of these same mistakes again?
\u2022 Based on prior lessons learned, what do I need to change (immediately) to avoid the
dreaded dumb tax?
\u2022 What are the rules and disciplines I will put in place to minimize the likelihood of
repeating my mistakes?
NOW\u2026Go Think! You will thank me later.
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By CunninghamIn the late 1980\u2019s, as the real estate market in the Southwestern part of the United Statescollapsed, I was wiped out, as were many of my friends and business associates. We wereexperiencing the inevitable catastrophic aftermath of one of the greatest real estate booms inthe history of mankind.We had made scores of millions in…
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