{"id":2323,"date":"2020-06-10T09:42:54","date_gmt":"2020-06-10T09:42:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/?p=1637"},"modified":"2020-09-11T14:54:45","modified_gmt":"2020-09-11T14:54:45","slug":"stocks-unemployment-eps-%e2%86%9330-prices-%e2%86%9143","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323","title":{"rendered":"Stocks &#038; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s a recession when your neighbor loses their job; it&#8217;s a depression when it is you.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> What could possibly go right? For equity investors, everything turned out rosier than expected. From the March 23 low, the S&amp;P 500 has risen 43%, while the employment\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/CE16OV\">rate\u00a0<\/a>has fallen from 96.4% to 86.7%, with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/UNEMPLOY#0\">15 million<\/a>\u00a0networkers losing their jobs through May per #covid19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The early forecasted headlines for an economic turnaround have been systemically dire. Most economists, illuminaries, and the newswire were calling for a severe recession at best, and a protracted world-changing depression at worst. Stocks, on the other hand, have been telling a far more optimistic story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a nutshell, the S&amp;P 500 operating earnings (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/us.spindices.com\/indices\/equity\/sp-500\" target=\"_blank\">EPS<\/a>) are forecast to fall from $157.12 in 2019 to $109.71 in 2020, a 30% decline. If this proves to be the case, the index is currently trading at 29x PE (projected year-end earnings), considerably higher than its 18x average since 1988. The upside in equities stems from a meteoric rise in estimated earnings from current levels to $161.80 by December 2021; in that case, stocks are trading at 19x their forward earnings estimates. As a professional money manager, how would I play this hand in an election year? I wouldn\u2019t bluff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1638 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/752;\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s a recession when your neighbor loses their job; it&#8217;s a depression when it is you.&#8221; What could possibly go right? For equity investors, everything turned out rosier than expected. From the March 23 low, the S&amp;P 500 has risen 43%, while the employment\u00a0rate\u00a0has fallen from 96.4% to 86.7%, with\u00a015 million\u00a0networkers losing their jobs through&#8230;<br \/><a class=\"button read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323\">Continue<span class=\"hide\"> Stocks &#038; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143%<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stocks &amp; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143% - Financial Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stocks &amp; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143% - Financial Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#8220;It&#8217;s a recession when your neighbor loses their job; it&#8217;s a depression when it is you.&#8221; What could possibly go right? For equity investors, everything turned out rosier than expected. From the March 23 low, the S&amp;P 500 has risen 43%, while the employment\u00a0rate\u00a0has fallen from 96.4% to 86.7%, with\u00a015 million\u00a0networkers losing their jobs through...Continue Stocks &#038; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143%\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Financial Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-06-10T09:42:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-09-11T14:54:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"chip\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"chip\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"chip\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#\/schema\/person\/dc3029c7b01df457c040e4fceac14b5c\"},\"headline\":\"Stocks &#038; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143%\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-06-10T09:42:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-09-11T14:54:45+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323\"},\"wordCount\":204,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Blog\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323\",\"name\":\"Stocks & Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143% - Financial Advisors\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-06-10T09:42:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-09-11T14:54:45+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#\/schema\/person\/dc3029c7b01df457c040e4fceac14b5c\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Stocks &#038; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143%\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/\",\"name\":\"Financial Advisors\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#\/schema\/person\/dc3029c7b01df457c040e4fceac14b5c\",\"name\":\"chip\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/85a131a6d44701b22caf713c3e8421d2905b429f04224c738ab5e95de3d81845?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/85a131a6d44701b22caf713c3e8421d2905b429f04224c738ab5e95de3d81845?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/85a131a6d44701b22caf713c3e8421d2905b429f04224c738ab5e95de3d81845?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"chip\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?author=3\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Stocks & Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143% - Financial Advisors","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Stocks & Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143% - Financial Advisors","og_description":"&#8220;It&#8217;s a recession when your neighbor loses their job; it&#8217;s a depression when it is you.&#8221; What could possibly go right? For equity investors, everything turned out rosier than expected. From the March 23 low, the S&amp;P 500 has risen 43%, while the employment\u00a0rate\u00a0has fallen from 96.4% to 86.7%, with\u00a015 million\u00a0networkers losing their jobs through...Continue Stocks &#038; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143%","og_url":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323","og_site_name":"Financial Advisors","article_published_time":"2020-06-10T09:42:54+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-09-11T14:54:45+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"chip","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"chip","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323"},"author":{"name":"chip","@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#\/schema\/person\/dc3029c7b01df457c040e4fceac14b5c"},"headline":"Stocks &#038; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143%","datePublished":"2020-06-10T09:42:54+00:00","dateModified":"2020-09-11T14:54:45+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323"},"wordCount":204,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png","articleSection":["Blog"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323","url":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323","name":"Stocks & Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143% - Financial Advisors","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png","datePublished":"2020-06-10T09:42:54+00:00","dateModified":"2020-09-11T14:54:45+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#\/schema\/person\/dc3029c7b01df457c040e4fceac14b5c"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#primaryimage","url":"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png","contentUrl":"http:\/\/1db-blog.1db.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/stocks-and-unemployment-1024x752.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?p=2323#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Stocks &#038; Unemployment: EPS \u219330%, Prices \u219143%"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/","name":"Financial Advisors","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/#\/schema\/person\/dc3029c7b01df457c040e4fceac14b5c","name":"chip","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/85a131a6d44701b22caf713c3e8421d2905b429f04224c738ab5e95de3d81845?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/85a131a6d44701b22caf713c3e8421d2905b429f04224c738ab5e95de3d81845?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/85a131a6d44701b22caf713c3e8421d2905b429f04224c738ab5e95de3d81845?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"chip"},"url":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/?author=3"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2323"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2323\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2364,"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2323\/revisions\/2364"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/beta.1db.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}